I've got to give Tim Rutten major ups for this column:
Every four years, an astonishing array of conservative commentators and Republican campaign strategists suddenly discover an intimate concern for Catholic consciences and an overriding preoccupation with the Roman church's sacramental and liturgical norms.
Last time around, for example, you couldn't toss a dart at the average Op-Ed page without hitting a right-wing columnist with a firm opinion on whether the Democratic presidential nominee, John Kerry, ought to be denied Communion because he's pro-choice. You could virtually feel the hunger for a good old-fashioned auto-da-fé and hear Karl Rove in the background disappointedly whispering, "Are you certain they don't burn people at the stake anymore?"
For a time, it looked as if war and recession would push "values issues" back into perspective in this election cycle, but abortion is too large a wedge issue to abandon casually. In the last few weeks, commentators began a campaign over the Democrats' failure to invite to Denver Archbishop Charles J. Chaput to their convention. Chaput was one of the handful of bishops who argued that Kerry and other pro-choice Catholic politicians should be denied Communion. More recently, Chaput's book, "Render Unto Caesar," argues that Catholics may not vote for pro-choice candidates. Under the circumstances, the Democrats' snub was graceless but understandable.
...
All this conservative crosier waving is about a simple set of numbers. Catholics constitute 25% of the electorate, and no presidential candidate in decades has won the popular vote without carrying Catholics. Obama and Sen. John McCain are in a statistical dead heat for the Catholic vote, with Obama leading 42% to 40% and 17% undecided, according to the pollsters' consensus. The Republicans think their margin of victory might be found in that 17%, many of them white, ethnic, swing-state voters presumed to be socially conservative. The bishops are desperate to demonstrate that their flock isn't ignoring them on abortion the way it has on contraception for half a century.
Really, as they say, read the whole thing. Rutten has a good feel for the political and religious dynamics at work here. Just to be clear about those: he's not accusing Chaput or any other bishop of being partisan tools. Rather, he's arguing (I think) that their desire to maintain their moral authority coincides with the Republican need to sway Catholic voters. It's a mutual admiration society, if you want to put it that way.
For what it's worth, I think the GOP is barking up the wrong tree here. It's true that Obama has had a tough time with Catholic voters, particularly older ones. The issue seems to be race, but perhaps abortion or "values" issues could be used as a proxy for that.
But it seems to me that ultimately McCain will come up short. My unscientific hunch is that with a united Democratic front, the union vote will come home just enough to tip the election to Obama. It might be closer in places like Michigan and Ohio than Dems would like, but in the end, I really do think Joe and Jane Lunchpail will realize which party represents their interests.
(And even if not, Obama's within ten electoral votes of walking away with the election. With ten states in the "toss-up" category, it's a pretty safe bet that he could make up for lost ground elsewhere.)
I'm interested in what other folks think. Does McCain have a reasonable play for that 17%? Show me the numbers, as they say.
Pee Ess: this story, on the other hand, is a perennial. Zombie lies never die.